vdp index: price momentum in top 7 housing markets continues to weaken
vdp property price index rose 6.7% in the second quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year
Housing top 7 markets: rental price growth easing
Commercial: office properties dominate price trend in the commercial market
The property price index of the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) for the German market as a whole, calculated on the basis of genuine transaction data, rose by 6.7% in the second quarter of 2019 compared with the same quarter the previous year. The price trend on the German property market is thus largely unaffected by the economic downturn. At the same time, there was a further slowdown in price growth on residential property markets, as forecast for 2019 and already observed in the first quarter.
Residential property prices in Germany climbed by an average of 6.6% in the second quarter of 2019 compared with the corresponding figure one year earlier.
In the top 7 cities of Hamburg, Berlin, Frankfurt, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Munich and Stuttgart, residential property prices rose by 4.6% compared with the same quarter the previous year (Q2 2018: 10.7%), a significantly more pronounced flattening than that seen in the market as a whole. The weaker momentum observed in the top 7 cities is due not least to the high price increases realised in recent years. Rental price growth in these regions also slowed down – likewise more strongly than in the overall market. At 3.6%, new lease rents rose less strongly in the second quarter of 2019 than in the same quarter of the previous year (Q2 2018: 5.2%).
“The latest figures show that investors are becoming more cautious given the price levels reached; at the same time, measures such as increased construction activity in the top 7 cities are beginning to take effect. Price momentum is therefore gradually flattening out,”
says Jens Tolckmitt, Chief Executive of the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp).
Commercial property prices rose by 6.8% in the second quarter of 2019 (Q2 2018: 7.1%). This growth was driven solely by the trend of the office property market which rose by 10.5%, representing the strongest hike in prices since 2003. This is due to continuing high demand from investors and a stable user market. Despite the economic downturn, demand for space remained high against the backdrop of historically low vacancy rates. As a result, office rents rose at an above-average rate of 6.7%.
By contrast, prices for retail properties have been under pressure for several quarters due to the growth of online trading and declining demand for space. In the second quarter of 2019 they recorded a further slight decline of 0.6%.
About the vdp property price index
The Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) publishes quarterly rent and price indices showing trends on German residential and commercial property markets, based on actual transaction figures. Prepared by the analyst firm vdpResearch, the index is used by the Deutsche Bundesbank as part of its property price monitoring activities. Over 600 credit institutions operating in the German financial sector supply transaction data (purchase prices and rents actually achieved) on their real estate finance business, and it is these data that form the basis of the index.
Information on developments in the respective sub-markets as well as all index data on the individual vdp property price indices (2003-2018) may be found in the relevant publication and are also available as raw data at www.pfandbrief.de. Moreover, vdpResearch provides a detailed assessment of the regional top 7 housing markets including all sub-segments (owner-occupied housing and multi-family houses) at www.vdpresearch.de.