vdp Issuance Climate survey reveals slight declines

Underlying sentiment among Pfandbrief experts remains positive

The vdp member banks have reported a slightly gloomier sentiment on the market for Pfandbriefe and unsecured bank bonds. That said, positive figures have again been calculated for all three scores. This is the finding of the eighth vdp Issuance Climate survey.

In June 2026 a slight decline in the score for unsecured bank bonds was calculated, slipping to +16 points (compared with +22 points in December 2025). The score for Pfandbriefe dipped from +14 to +7 points over the last six months. As a result of these two developments, the overall score narrowed from +17 to +11 points.

The vdp Issuance Climate survey is conducted and published twice a year, with a sentiment indicator ranging from -100 to +100 points.

Strong demand for Pfandbriefe

The vdp member banks are currently experiencing strong demand for Pfandbriefe, as the corresponding score (+71 points) demonstrates. This figure is considerably higher than expectations six months ago (+22 points). Overall, the vdp member banks were able to place new Pfandbriefe worth EUR 32.2 billion in the first five months of this year. This represents a slight increase of 2% compared with the issue volume for the corresponding period one year earlier. Of this total, Mortgage Pfandbriefe accounted for EUR 23.8 billion (+6%) and Public Pfandbriefe for EUR 8.4 billion (-8%). New issues of liquid Pfandbriefe in benchmark format (≥ EUR 500 million) came to EUR 20 billion over the last five months. This was in keeping with the previous year’s level.

According to Steffen Stachna, Senior Manager Capital Markets at vdp, the strong demand once again underscores the Pfandbrief’s resilience to crises and its importance as a funding tool for issuers and a high-quality investment product for investors. The higher inflation expectations and increases in yields associated with the Iran war led to only a brief pause in issuance activity, Stachna remarked. The vdp Issuance Climate survey reflects the currently upbeat mood among capital market experts. Regarding the coming months, the outlook is slightly subdued, Stachna commented.

Determinants of the future demand for Pfandbriefe

After the favourable sales figures achieved in the first five months of this year, the experts at the vdp member banks are markedly more guarded in their expectations for demand over the next six months. This is reflected in a score of +6 points for Pfandbriefe. Good oversubscription results continue to be expected. The corresponding score for the coming six months is, at +34 points, at a similarly high level to the current assessment (+37 points). The achievable asset-swap level is expected to see a further slight improvement. The score here for the expected development over the next six months stands at +6 points, compared with -6 points at present. Experts believe the spread over Bunds will continue to weigh on demand. This is reflected in the score of -38 points for the coming six months, compared with -32 points at present.

“The vdp Issuance Climate survey reflects the currently upbeat mood among capital market experts. Regarding the coming six months, the outlook is slightly subdued.” Steffen Stachna, Senior Manager Capital Markets at vdp

Slightly subdued sentiment for unsecured bank bonds

The outlook for unsecured bank bonds presents a picture similar to that for Pfandbriefe. Whereas the current assessment of demand for unsecured bank bonds shows a score of +48 points, the score for the next six months is calculated at +4 points. Expectations for achievable asset-swap spreads are somewhat more optimistic than for Pfandbriefe, with +16 points calculated for the coming six-month period as against +40 points at present.

Rising yields expected for 10-year Bunds

According to the capital market experts, the general trend in interest rates over the next six months will have a noticeably positive impact on demand for Pfandbriefe and unsecured bank bonds going forward. Just over 60% of respondents expect yields on 10-year Bunds to rise slightly to between 3% and 3.2% – compared with 3% at present. Around 10% of experts anticipate an increase to more than 3.2%, while 30% expect yields to remain unchanged or to contract slightly.

About vdp Issuande Climate Survey

Methodology

Each survey comprises an assessment of the past six months, the current situation and the coming six months, with the latter being weighted most heavily in the evaluation. These assessments determine separate scores for Pfandbriefe and unsecured bank bonds, as well as an overall score. A score of 0 points corresponds to a stable capital market environment in which issuance plans can be carried out without any problems. Negative scores (maximum -100) indicate that the issuance environment is less favourable than average, and positive scores (maximum +100) that it is more favourable than average.

The vdp Issuance Climate survey provides information twice a year on the sentiment among the members of the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) with regard to the placement of Pfandbriefe and unsecured bank bonds. To assess this sentiment, experts from the vdp member banks are asked about the factors influencing Pfandbrief and unsecured bank bond sales. Each survey covers the past six months, the current situation and the coming six months, with the latter being weighted most heavily in the evaluation.

The responses are grouped together by subject area, providing an overview of the supply and demand situation on the markets for Pfandbriefe and unsecured bank bonds. Three scores are then calculated based on certain assumptions about the relative importance of each subject area: one score each for Pfandbriefe and unsecured bonds, as well as an overall score. A score of 0 points corresponds to a stable capital market environment in which issuance plans can be carried out without any problems. Negative scores indicate that the issuance environment is less favourable than average, and positive scores that it is more favourable than average.

The Pfandbrief banks belonging to the vdp hold a market share of almost 96% of outstanding Pfandbriefe.